Climate change presents both risks and opportunities for Canada’s marine aquaculture (mariculture) industry. A new study from the University of British Columbia shows that while climate change will impact mariculture, for both mollusc and finfish species, on Canada’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts, strategic changes in production, policy, infrastructure, and spatial planning could turn many of these challenges into opportunities.
Canada’s mariculture industry has grown substantially in recent years, with production increasing from approximately 92,500 tonnes in 1998 to 159,800 tonnes in 2022. In 2022, the industry contributed around $1.2 billion to the Canadian economy and employed 3,900 full-time individuals, many in remote coastal regions where traditional industries, such as fishing and forestry, are in decline. Approximately half of Canada’s mariculture production comes from British Columbia, primarily along the province’s south coast. In Atlantic Canada, mariculture production is spread across the provinces; New Brunswick, leading with 17 per cent of national production, followed by Prince Edward Island (13 per cent), Newfoundland and Labrador (10 per cent), Nova Scotia (5 per cent), and Quebec (1 per cent).
The study analysed the future of Canada’s mariculture sector under contrasting climate and socio-economic scenarios. Two climate-related scenarios and two production approaches were used to project the regional impacts of climate change, consequences on thirteen key marine species along Canada’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts, as well as socio-economic effects.

Description of climate-socioeconomic and production scenarios used to model mariculture futures in Canada.
“The various scenarios and approaches gave us a broader understanding of how climate change will affect mariculture on both coasts,” said Dr.
Muhammed Oyinlola, lead author on the study and a postdoctoral fellow in the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries. “We see substantial regional contrasts, with the Atlantic region showing modest gains under a low-emission climate scenario, but declines under a high-emission scenario because of climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada shows strong growth potential under both scenarios.”
“The potential opportunities for production growth in Pacific Canada, particularly in its central and northern areas, have a lot to do with species that are being farmed,” added Dr. William Cheung, senior author of the study and professor and Director of the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries. “In Pacific Canada, aquaculture focuses on farming finfish salmonids such as climate-resilient Coho salmon, Chinook salmon, and steelhead trout. Our projections show that while the South coast is likely to experience declines as conditions become less suitable, and the Central coast may experience some mid-century decline, it is expected to rebound there up to 32% by the end of the century. The North coast shows positive gains under both scenarios.”
Atlantic Canada’s mariculture sector is more focused on mollusc farming (blue mussels, bay scallops, eastern and European flat oysters, and hard clams), with some finfish species like Atlantic salmon, cod, and halibut. “Our results show that in Atlantic Canada, farmed finfish, and shellfish species can benefit from future climate scenarios, but with strong regional variation,” said Oyinlola. “On the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves, marine area that is potentially suitable for mariculture is projected to increase under both scenarios (up 28 per cent in the 2050s and 36 per cent by the 2100s under the low impact scenario, and increases of 33 per cent in the 2050s and 80 per cent by the 2100s under the hard scenario). The Gulf of St. Lawrence (17 per cent and 23 per cent respectively) and the Scotian Shelf (2 per cent in the 2050s and 8 per cent by the 2100s) show modest increases under the low-emission climate change scenario, but both regions are projected to decline under the high-emission scenarios by 8 per cent and 19 per cent for the Scotian Shelf and 28 and 55 per cent for the Gulf of St. Lawrence at mid and end-century, respectively, due to declining habitat suitability and the sensitivity of key species.”

Projected percentage change in mariculture production (tonnes), farm-gate price, and employment for Canada’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts by the 2050s and 2100s.
Panels (a) and (b) show results across three production scenarios: Baseline, Socio-Economic Drivers, and Static Spatial Footprint. Bars represent mean change; error bars indicate standard deviation. Blue represents production tonnes, pink represents farm-gate price, and yellow represents employment.
Climate, however, is only part of the story. “Whether the potential can be realized sustainably and the associated ecological, social and economic risks from expansion of mariculture depends on regional policies, infrastructure, and spatial planning that reconcile mariculture expansion with conservation, Indigenous uses, and other priorities,” said Cheung. “Rising farm-gate prices – price for aquaculture products at the point of first sales – may benefit producers, but the uneven spatial distribution of suitable marine areas on both coasts and the projected changes in employment, pose serious challenges. We see consistent job losses in Atlantic Canada under many scenarios, with only limited or uncertain gains in the Pacific.”
“Technological and management innovations, such as selective breeding, diversified farming systems, and, in some cases, closed-containment or integrated multi-trophic aquaculture, can enhance resilience,” said Oyinlola. “Ultimately, the sustainability of Canada’s mariculture will depend on how well we respond to regional climate change and harness emerging opportunities through innovation, inclusive food policies, and investments in resilient infrastructure.”
“Opportunities and challenges for Canada’s mariculture under climate change: a regional and sectoral outlook” was published in FACETS.
Tags: Atlantic, Canada, climate change, CORU, employment, faculty, finfish, fish, fishing farms, IOF postdoctoral fellows, mariculture, molluscs, Muhammed Oyinlola, Pacific Ocean, socio-economic, William Cheung